DHL Global Forwarding reports a steady airfreight market

Image: © Jaromir Chalabala/ Shutterstock

DHL Global Forwarding is expecting the air cargo market to remain balanced in the first quarter of the year as capacity utilisation and demand levels remain stable.

In a January airfreight market outlook, the forwarder said that the global airfreight market in the first quarter of 2026 is continuing to expand modestly, with steady demand but at a slower growth pace than in recent years.

However, it added that there were mixed signals across regions and trade lanes. For instance, demand trends emerging in the opening weeks of the year include continued growth on Asia-Europe trade lanes, while Asia-North America volumes are “rising more modestly”.

For the year as a whole, DHL pointed to IATA projections of a year-on-year demand increase of between 2.4-2.6%.

This represents a slowdown on the 3.4% percentage growth registered last year, according to IATA, and reflects expectations of weaker trade this year.

“Global trade in 2026 is expected to slow compared with 2025, as geopolitical fragmentation, regulatory barriers, and tightening national policies, along with digital and green transitions, weigh on growth,” DHL said in its airfreight market report.

On the capacity front, the forwarder highlighted expectations of moderate global capacity growth, with “strategic reallocations across key corridors”.

DHL pointed to statistics from Accenture showing a 5% increase in capacity in January.

This includes capacity increases on Asia–Europe and Asia–Middle East routes, while transpacific lanes are flat or slightly down.

The Accenture data shows a 10% year-on-year decrease in capacity from Asia Pacific to North America, an 11% increase from Asia Pacific to Europe and a 14% increase from Asia Pacific to the Middle East and Africa.

“Capacity utilisation remains stable or slightly rising, supporting steady yields, but regional variations and macro risks will continue to influence market dynamics,” DHL said.

It added that capacity was “structurally tight” on Asia-Europe and intra-Asia routes.

DHL said that carriers were cautious about adding too much capacity during the first quarter because of concerns about the impact of geopolitical tensions, tariffs and broader macroeconomic challenges on trade levels.

Looking to the rest of the year, DHL said that widebody airfreight capacity is expected to continue to come
under pressure in 2026 and the coming years as the “backlog of aircraft on order remains at historic highs”. This reflects expecations of others, such as IATA.